Germany's center-left Social Democrats (SPD) claimed victory in the federal election with 25.7% of the votes, beating center-right CDU-CSU conservative bloc (the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union) who won 24.1%. The Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) came in third and fourth place with 14.8 and 11.5%, respectively, while the AfD (Alternative for Germany) won the smallest share of votes (10.3%). Overall, the outcome of the election means that Germany is going through relative uncertainty that will dominate the political landscape in the months ahead due to expected obstacles to the formation of the country’s next government.
Implications of the election outcome
The following political implications of the outcome of the election stand out most evidently:
1- Diminishing competition between SPD and CDU.
The SPD had a narrow win over the CDU-CSU conservative parliamentary bloc. Compared to its performance in the 2017 election, the SPD increased its share of the votes by 5.2%. With this win, the party secured 206 seats in the Bundestag.
On the other side, the CDU-CSU’s vote share went down to 8.8% from 32.9%in the 2017 election. Some of the CDU leading figures lost in the direct vote to the SPD candidates, which signifies its receding popularity after the departure of Chancellor Angela Merkel.
The share of 24.1%won by the CDU-CSU indicates rising political polarization between the two parties leading the race. Additionally, the SPD and the Christian bloc are unlikely to join the same government coalition. However, this possibility cannot be completely ruled out because both are looking to win the chancellor’s post.
Evidently, the race for the chancellery will come down to a runoff between Olaf Scholz of the SPD, 63 years, and his conservative rival Armin Laschet of the CDU-CSU, 60 years, who, even after his party lagged 1.6 points behind the conservative rivals, insisted that he had a mandate to form a new government with the Greens and the FDP.
2- Game changer:
The election changed the rules of the democratic game in Germany. Traditionally, the party that wins a majority of the votes would lead talks over forming a new government, but if it failed, the second largest winner will take over. Accordingly, the SPD was to enter talks to form a new government.
Leader of the SPD Olaf Scholz said he had a clear mandate to form a government through a new coalition with the Greens and the liberal FDP. Scholz’s statements were rejected by his conservative rival Armin Laschet who too stressed that he has a mandate to form the new government. In such context, the German constitution allows the second largest party in the parliament to lead the new government.
3- The Greens and FDP become the kingmakers:
The pro-environment Greens party won 14.8%of the votes, while the fourth-placed FDP won 11.5%. Combined, the two parties garnered a total of 26.3%of the votes, which means they can give a majority to either one of the leading parties competing for forming a new government, i.e. the SPD or the CDU-CSU. What makes this likely is that the FDP made it clear that it is necessary to hold talks with the Greens first.
Overall, the two parties not only can determine who is the next chancellor, Scholz or Laschet, but also can impose their own agendas, on both, domestic and foreign policy, especially in light of the evident disagreement between the parties over issues such as taxes, economic reforms and climate.
4- Downturn of the extreme right and the radical left:
The results of the recent election show a decline in the popularity of the far right and the radical left across Germany. The AfD won only 10.3%of the votes, although in 2017 it became Germany’s third largest party. The Left Party (Die Linke), won 4.9%of the votes, slumping from its 9% share in 2017.
The new government’s agenda
Regardless of the composition of the governing coalition, the new government is not likely to follow different policies on Germany’s European neighbors, even though domestic policies are expected to be changed by the coming government. This can be explained as follows:
1- Convergence on relations with Russia:
Scholz and Laschet agree on the need for maintaining the German-Russian relations, especially in regards to the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline, launched by Merkel despite opposition from the United States to any step that may increase Russia’s influence in Europe, and despite German environmentalists’ rejection of the government’s plans to increase investment in fossil fuel projects instead of clean and renewable energy projects.
2- Growing disagreement about domestic policies:
Germany’s major parties differ about tax policies. The FDP supports more taxes on the rich, while Laschet clings to the current tax policies. Unlike Scholtz who rejects a continued expansion of borrowing policies, Laschet supports an extension of borrowing to 2023 to offset the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Five Scenarios for the Coalition Government
Observers propose five potential scenarios for the makeup of the new coalition government, based on a record number of seats in the new Bundestag, the largest ever with 735 seats —with 137 more deputies than the 2017 election. The scenarios are as follows:
1- Traffic Light:
This coalition is made up of the SPD (red), the FDP (yellow) and the Greens. This is one of the two likeliest scenarios for the new government, especially after the SPD won a majority of votes.
2- Jamaica:
The CDU-led alliance is labeled so because the party colors of black, green and yellow reflect Jamaica’s flag. In this scenario, the alliance includes the CDU, the Greens and the FDP. It is the same coalition that failed to form a government in 2017 after the FDP withdrew from the election and decided not to enter a coalition led by Merkel, who then had to form a grand coalition with the SPD.
Noticeably, the new variables churned out by the election results, as well as Merkel’s departure, might well mean that the same coalition is likely to be formed. This scenario can come true if the CDU-CSU’s candidate, Armin Laschet, reaches an agreement with the Greens and the FDP.
3- A grand coalition:
It would include the two major parties, the CDU and CSU. This scenario would materialize if their talks were held separately to form a coalition with the Greens and the FDP. But the wide rift between the two parties, coupled with the messages they have already sent across, suggest that such a path would be their last resort.
4- A leftist coalition:
Such a coalition would include the SPD, Die Linke and the Green, all of which belong to the left wing. This scenario, however, is not largely likely.
5- The Germany coalition:
The potential three-way coalition would be made up of the CDU-CSU, the SDP and the FDP, and would be led by Scholtz.
Overall, Berlin entered a period of uncertainty. Talks over the formation of the new government are already underway and are yet to reveal who will replace Merkel who will continue in a caretaker role as German chancellor until a new government is in place and until after the 19th Bundestag holds its first session, scheduled for October 26, 2021.
